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These days, the topic of Sino-US trade wars has blown up friends. The Sino-US trade war seems to be on the verge of exploding, and the global market is full of people's hearts. Many countries' stock markets have entered a state of plunging.
However, the people seem to have no clear understanding of the "China-US trade war". Some shouted that they should start a full-scale war, fight economic wars, fight political warfare, and hope that the Chinese government will not bear it and conform to the United States to avoid further losses. What is the truth about this trade war? How will China respond? And what is the impact on the price of steel? Let’s follow Wei Wei to understand the ins and outs of the incident.
The United States launched a trade war
Trade war refers to a series of retaliation caused by some countries' high tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers, restricting the entry of other countries' goods into their domestic markets, and at the same time competing for foreign markets through dumping and foreign exchange depreciation. And anti-retaliation.
The common means of trade warfare is to increase import tariffs. This is the case for Trump to launch a steel and aluminum trade war, so trade wars are also called tariff wars for most of the time.
On March 22, US President Trump signed a memorandum to take three major measures against China based on the results of the “Article 301” investigation:(1) Large-scale tariff collection on Chinese imports: The US Trade Representative Office will draft a list of taxable goods within the next 15 days, involving high-tech products such as aerospace, information and communication, and mechanical equipment。 Up to 60 billion US dollars, the final tax collection list and taxation method will be formally implemented after 30 days of publicity; (2) Recourse to WTO dispute mechanism: assigning the US Trade Representative Office to the WTO on discriminatory technology licensing issues Prosecuting China; (3) Restricting Chinese companies' investment in the United States: The US Treasury Department has formulated a plan to restrict Chinese companies' investment and mergers and acquisitions of US companies within 60 days。 The US believes that many of the investments in this area are aimed at acquiring the core technologies of the United States。
The reason why Trump launched a trade war is of course to protect the domestic industry.
The truth here is actually very simple: if imported goods have more advantages than similar products in the country for a long time, it is obvious that the relevant domestic industries will be squeezed, and it is understandable to protect their own industries, commodities and employment by raising tariffs.
In addition, in fact, Trump chose to launch a trade war at this time, and there are deeper considerations. As we all know, the 2008 economic crisis began in the US subprime mortgage crisis. In order to save the economy and enter the era of large-scale currency release, the US economy has taken the lead in recovery. In order to continue to maintain its dominance and dollar hegemony, the United States has taken the lead in raising interest rates in the past two years. The purpose of raising interest rates is to attract the return of US dollar capital and further revitalize the domestic economy.
Speaking of the roots, Trump launched a trade war with a combination of interest rate hikes. It is essentially a currency war for global capital. Whoever has more global capital will have a greater voice.
For the United States, which is leading the economy and continues to recover, there is still a double-edged idea of launching a trade war:
If no one takes the initiative, it can play a role in protecting the domestic industry and stimulate domestic demand; if someone picks up the move, it can solve the current dilemma of inflation in the United States, and help the United States raise interest rates faster and harvest global capital.
Sanctions against China's "301 investigation" can create news hotspots to attract media coverage of Sino-US trade wars, thereby reducing media attention to the Trump scandal over the weekend.
However, some Chinese experts believe that China’s technological catch-up has caused panic in the United States, or one of the other sources of this round of US trade policy toward China。 The new logic of US trade policy toward China is “all-round suppression of China’s technological progress”。
The complementarity of Sino-US trade relations is far greater than competition, and this 301 survey is different from the past in that it is mainly concentrated in high-value-added high-tech industries, and some industries are industries with export advantages in China, and taxation will hurt. The interests of local American consumers and manufacturers. The purpose of the United States to launch a trade war is not only political appeals and reduction of trade deficits, but also regards China's high-tech development as a huge threat, and hopes to achieve containment through trade wars.
In view of the above complicated and different political and political demands in this trade dispute, it is expected that this trade war will be more tortuous than the previous ones。 In an optimistic situation, the two sides reached an agreement through negotiations; in a pessimistic situation, the trade war was escalated in an all-round way。 In extreme cases, the net export volume to the US was lost, which probably affected the GDP growth rate by about 0。4 percentage points。
If the actual situation of the trade war continues to escalate, especially when other economies begin to join, it will be a "double lose" situation for all. However, at present, China's economic fundamentals are more resilient. Domestic consumption growth and macroeconomic policies have room to tide over the adverse effects of trade friction. On the contrary, we will have greater motivation to enhance international competitiveness and foster more global industry leaders. .
Before the short-term situation is unclear, market risk appetite will be suppressed, and if the situation continues to be unstable, the short-term gold sector will continue to have safe-haven capital inflows。 To avoid evading exports to the United States, the trade war has limited impact on the economy as a whole, and the deep correction is the time to buy and sell high-quality companies。 In addition, the policy direction related to counter-trade warfare is consumption, the Belt and Road, and so on。 If the situation is clearly close to reaching a compromise, the cyclical product that is revalued will have greater flexibility。 The stock index is temporarily waiting to wait for the bottoming to stabilize。